How is Riyadh Air doing? Part two - by Oliver Ranson

Riyadh Air (RX) has logged more than two million miles of flying since launching passenger services, received seven Boeing 787-9 twin-aisles registered HZ‑RXAA to HZ‑RXAG, and announced an order for 60 Airbus A321neo aircraft in October 2024 — yet a close commercial read suggests the startup is only on track to meet one of four strategic criteria set out for it last year.

"The startup airline is only on the way to meeting one out of four success criteria," Oliver Ranson writes, concluding a fresh assessment of RX's early retailing, loyalty and network choices.

Ranson laid out four recommended priorities: deploy smaller aircraft to boost connectivity; build a loyalty-first business; recruit commercial specialists from other industries to focus on retailing; and offer affordable premium products to monetise an emerging middle class. On the fleet, he judges it "too early to tell" if RX will capitalise on its announced A321neo order because none of those single-aisle jets have been delivered and OAG schedule data showed no services using them yet.

On loyalty, Ranson gives RX a cautiously positive score. The airline's Sfeer programme has been well designed in places: a founder programme with membership number prefix 1, a "best offer" guarantee and guaranteed free fast wi‑fi are all cited as tangible early advantages. Demographics also favour the carrier — Saudi Arabia's population is about 34 million with roughly 70% under 35 — and Ranson notes that "85% are apparently open to new loyalty programmes" based on an RX presentation he attended.

But he warns the hard part is long‑term engagement. Saudi indicators such as falling unemployment (from 12.3% in 2016 to 7.1% in Q3 2024), 1.27 million SMEs registered in 2023 and non‑oil GDP growth rising from 1.82% in 2016 to 4.93% in the first half of 2023 signal rising purchasing power — and a risk that Sfeer could trap consumers into "short‑term engagement and low value rewards." Ranson argues RX must convert young upwardly mobile Saudis into a "travelling class" who aspire to frequent travel and premium cabins, pointing to potential partner ideas such as cinema brand Muvi and loyalty mechanics like Virgin Atlantic’s "High Five" to reward sustained, low‑volume flyers.

On retailing and commercial product, Ranson judges RX "probably underperforming." He praises the speed and functionality of the Riyadh Air website — fares load quickly and a shopping "cart" concept is present — but criticises the lack of imaginative offers, partnerships and bundled experiences. "Why are there no partnerships? No exciting travel products bundled in with the flight component?" he asks, noting that cultural and sightseeing products highlighted on the site — Diriyah, the National Museum, the Edge of the World and Al Masmak Palace — are not packaged with travel bookings.

Network planning also draws criticism. Ranson points to late‑night departures — BA departs London at about 1am, while RX flights to London (3.15am), Manchester (2.15am) and Madrid (2.25am) — and argues those times suit European business travellers more than the Saudi leisure market, which would prefer morning departures and afternoon arrivals.

• Verdicts: Fleet — too early to tell; Loyalty — a good start but more to do; Retailing — probably underperforming.
• Key numbers: 2+ million miles flown; 7 Boeing 787‑9s delivered (HZ‑RXAA to HZ‑RXAG); order for 60 A321neo (Oct 2024).

Outlook: Riyadh Air benefits from favourable demographics and early technical competence, but Ranson concludes the carrier must accelerate retail innovation, translate Sfeer into meaningful long‑term value for affluent and aspiring consumers, and deploy single‑aisle aircraft to unlock regional connectivity — otherwise it risks being "a normal airline translated into the latest technical infrastructure" rather than a genuinely new retailing champion.