Dubai's Danube Group targets nearly $4 billion launches in FY27

Dubai-based Danube Group plans to roll out projects with a combined sales potential of around $4 billion in the 2026-27 financial year, while narrowing its pipeline to two to three launches amid a correction in the Emirati property market, the group's Vice-Chairman Anis Sajan said. The developer has already launched Greenz by Danube, a townhouse and villa community whose first phase carries a top-line potential of roughly $1.3 billion and has sold nearly 40% of about 750 townhouses.

Direct quote

“If I have to be very honest, sales over the past three months have not been the same as they were before the attacks in February. The real estate market has definitely taken a hit,” Sajan said. “I believe the market should bounce back within the next six months. Dubai has recovered from every major challenge in the past, and I expect it to do so again.”

Context and details

Sajan said the group is deliberately more selective now, preferring to ensure a project is substantially sold before launching another. That approach reduces the number of planned launches from the roughly six projects it might have pursued in calmer times to just two or three for FY27. The move comes against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions that have dampened overseas investor activity and tourism, and prompted more cautious buying behavior.

• Greenz by Danube: first phase top-line potential ~ $1.3 billion; ~750 townhouses; ~40% sold.
• Planned launches in FY27: combined sales potential ~ $4 billion; reduced to 2–3 projects from about six.
• Danube Group revenue (2025–26): $4 billion.
• Real estate business growth (last year): ~20%; expectation for break-even or modest performance in FY27.
• Building materials business forecast: ~20% growth this year, despite higher freight costs.

Sajan highlighted buyer profile shifts: active purchasers are largely long-term UAE residents, including Indians, Pakistanis, Sri Lankans and Bangladeshis, while first-time overseas investors have grown more selective. He noted tourist arrivals have fallen partly because of safety perceptions and partly because of seasonality, with demand likely to pick up in winter months.

Supply-side pressures and cost inflation are also influencing strategy. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed container freight rates from around $1,500 to almost $10,000, Sajan said, translating into a roughly 1–1.5% increase in costs for Danube because of its integrated building materials business; developers sourcing materials externally could face 3–4% cost increases. The group has absorbed a portion of these additional construction costs rather than passing them entirely to buyers.

Outlook

Sajan warned of a period of consolidation and possible distress in the secondary market, where some investors may sell at 5–10% discounts due to liquidity constraints. He does not foresee price increases in the near term, calling the phase a market correction. “Developers with strong balance sheets and the ability to absorb this phase will survive. Those without that strength may find it difficult,” he said, while expressing confidence in Dubai's long-term resilience.