Dubai realty’s speculative froth has cleared, risk-reward better than a year ago: Certus Capital- Moneycontrol.com

Certus Capital, a real estate credit platform founded in 2018 by Ashish Khandelia, says Dubai’s property market has shed much of its speculative excess and now offers a better risk-reward profile than a year ago. The firm has begun deploying downside-protected capital in Dubai and is simultaneously raising a Rs 500 crore alternative investment fund (AIF) focused on performing real estate credit backed by real assets in India, with a first close targeted in July.

“The speculative froth that had built up has cleared, and what remains is a more rational opportunity set with better risk-reward than the market offered even a year ago,” said Teena Gandhi, executive director at Certus Capital.

Context and recent moves

• Certus Capital entered Dubai after studying the market since 2023 and made its first investments in the emirate last year through downside-protected structures backed by three near-ready assets in prominent micro-markets.
• The firm is targeting net dollar returns of over 15 percent from these Dubai transactions and highlights the UAE Dirham’s peg to the US Dollar as a mitigating factor for currency risk.
• In parallel, Certus is raising a Rs 500 crore AIF for India that targets net returns of 17–19 percent, aimed at investors seeking predictable income and longer-duration exposure beyond deal-by-deal transactions.
• TFCI has come in as the anchor investor for the AIF. Together, Certus, its team and the anchor investor are committing about 15 percent of the fund—nearly Rs 75 crore—toward the raise.
• Since inception, Certus has committed more than Rs 2,000 crore across about 20 transactions; its current outstanding assets under management stand close to Rs 1,000 crore, while its broader transaction and advisory experience exceeds Rs 10,000 crore.
• Recent activity includes a Rs 275 crore last-mile funding investment in Hyderabad. For the current fiscal year the firm is looking to deploy Rs 2,000–2,500 crore, although it does not operate to a hard deployment target.

Management view and rationale

Founder Ashish Khandelia argued that structural shifts have strengthened Dubai’s residential and commercial real estate fundamentals. “Government policies such as long-term residency visas, along with Dubai’s response to crises including COVID-19 and the more recent West Asia conflict, have strengthened this trend,” he said, noting that Dubai has evolved from a temporary expatriate base into a more permanent home for many immigrants. Khandelia compared the market’s stage to India’s real estate environment 15 years ago, while emphasising that land titles, regulatory frameworks and escrow regimes in Dubai provide greater ease of diligence and comfort for institutional capital.

Outlook

Certus is positioning itself to deploy structured private-credit solutions where conventional flows have slowed, seeking to capitalise on what the firm describes as a more measured opportunity set in Dubai and a steady pipeline of performing credit in India. With an AIF fundraise underway, an anchor investor committed and a track record of exits delivering net returns above 15 percent for prior vintages, Certus expects the combined strategy to support its stated return targets and expand the scale of transactions it can execute.