Dubai is open for business – but not yet business as usual

Dubai’s streets, restaurants and business clubs are filling up again, but the emirate is not yet back to full normality, according to AGBI Editor-at-Large Frank Kane. While venues such as the Cullinan steak-house in Marsa Al Arab and a drinks reception at Capital Club Dubai in DIFC were described as “busy” and “as well attended as ever,” others — notably the vast public areas of the Jumeirah Beach Hotel — remain quiet and tourist numbers are subdued. Consultancy Capital Economics has warned Gulf economies could face a contraction of between 5 and 10 percent this year, and organisers have rescheduled the Arabian Travel Market for August, signalling a softer season ahead.

"Open for business, if not quite 'business as usual' – yet," Kane wrote, capturing the dual reality in Dubai: visible signs of life alongside unease about what comes next.

City scene and business mood

Kane’s on-the-ground observations paint a city returning to routine but operating in an economic and psychological limbo. He reported that DIFC, which “not so long ago felt eerily hollowed out while missiles were flying,” is “edging back towards hectic,” with traffic flows, office attendance and social networking picking up. Morning coffee at the Arts Club felt familiar, though Kane noted that the “ladies who lunch” had in the main been replaced by the “men who manage,” discussing recovery strategies.

• Capital Economics projection: Gulf economies may contract 5–10% this year.
• Arabian Travel Market: rescheduled for August.
• Jumeirah Group: closed Burj Al Arab for refurbishment, described as a strategic use of softer demand.

Kane flagged the decision by Jumeirah Group to close the Burj Al Arab for refurbishment as both a planned upgrade and an “opportunistic use of a moment when demand is softer than usual” — a move that conserves capacity in a lower-demand period. He contrasted that practical business response with the nearly empty promenades at the Jumeirah Beach Hotel, which he likened to a “Mary Celeste.”

Voices on recovery and risk

The conversation among business leaders is dominated less by the conflict itself and more by its economic aftermath. Veteran regional entrepreneur Fadi Ghandour offered a more optimistic scenario, invoking the “hockey stick effect” — a sharp downturn followed by an equally sharp recovery — potentially beginning as early as the third quarter. That framing provides a counterpoint to the more cautious warnings echoed in consultancy analyses.

Kane concluded that, while Dubai’s infrastructure and institutions remain intact and schools are due to return to in-person learning next week, the city occupies an ambiguous position: “not in crisis, but not entirely at ease either.” The near-term picture is one of resilience tempered by caution, with hopes that the anticipated “hockey stick” recovery will materialise by year-end but with an acceptance that the full impact of recent shocks may yet be felt.