84% of global investors back Dubai off-plan property market

Dubai’s off‑plan property market is drawing overwhelming international support, with 84% of global investors rating the emirate as a more attractive destination for off‑plan investment than rival markets. The city recorded 87,800 real estate transactions worth Dh291.7 billion in the first half of 2026, with off‑plan properties accounting for 71% of all deals. Average property prices rose 9% in H1 2026, while luxury demand produced 296 home sales above $10 million worth a combined $5.1 billion.

“Global confidence in Dubai has never been higher, and much of it is well founded - but enthusiasm is not a strategy,” said Mohamed Mohamed, Co‑Founder and CEO of Smart Bricks.

Survey and market drivers

A Smart Bricks study surveyed more than 8,500 international off‑plan investors across Europe, South Asia, the GCC, Africa, the Americas and East Asia. Over half of respondents said Dubai was “significantly” more attractive than other global property markets, with a further 32% viewing it as “somewhat” more attractive.

• Primary investment motives: 61% cited potential for capital growth, 54% cited developer payment plans, 47% cited the city’s tax environment, 42% cited population and economic growth, and 36% cited strong rental demand.
• Population inflows: about 121,000 new residents moved to the emirate in the first six months of 2026, reinforcing housing demand.
• Ultra‑prime performance: transaction volumes for homes above $10 million climbed 16% year‑on‑year, while sales values rose 14%.

Development pipeline, branded residences and returns

Dubai’s development pipeline supports the off‑plan surge: more than 31,000 branded residence units are scheduled for delivery by 2030, representing roughly 8% of future housing supply. The emirate already leads globally in branded residences with 64 completed developments and 87 projects in the pipeline. Branded properties command an average 64% premium over non‑branded homes, the analysis found.

However, Smart Bricks’ analysis of secondary transactions shows investing in off‑plan units is nuanced. Reviewing more than 70,000 off‑plan units bought directly from developers and resold before handover between 2009 and 2026, the report found the median flip produced a gross gain of 9.1% after a typical 19‑month holding period. Once transaction costs of about 5% are deducted, net returns fall to roughly 4.1%.

• Timing matters: units sold more than 18 months before handover yielded median gains of 5.3%; sales at or after handover achieved median gains of 18.7%.
• Villas peaked: returns reached 27.5% in the final three months before completion, then dropped after handover.
• Location variance: Tilal Al Ghaf recorded median gains of 24%; La Mer and City Walk 22% each; Dubai Marina 5%; Sobha Hartland 2%.

“Off‑plan property buyers commit before they can experience the finished product, so confidence must be earned through architectural quality, functionality and delivery credibility,” said Michael Belton, CEO of MERED. He added that those qualities would define “the next generation of luxury residences and reinforce Dubai’s position as one of the world’s most desirable places to live and invest.”

Outlook: strong investor sentiment, record transaction volumes and an expanding pipeline suggest Dubai’s off‑plan market will remain active. Yet the research signals a maturing market where successful returns hinge on asset choice, precise timing and location rather than broad market momentum alone.