Stock futures fall as investors weigh AI safety concerns, oil gains: Live updates

Stock futures fell early Monday as investors digested a fresh wave of uncertainty around artificial intelligence companies and a sharp move higher in oil prices after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. S&P 500 futures were down 0.6% as of 3:06 a.m. ET, Nasdaq-100 futures tumbled 1.44%, and Dow futures slid about 50 points (0.1%).

"An IPO for the ChatGPT maker would now would be 'ill-advised,'" OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in an interview published Saturday, a marked reversal from comments by OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar that the company would go public by 2027 at the latest.

The comment from Altman, coupled with a separate call from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei for a slowdown in the pace of model development due to safety risks, rattled investors who had priced in a string of high-profile AI listings and sustained corporate tech spending. Amodei, in an essay published over the weekend and speaking to CBS News, said companies "need to slow the pace of innovation for their best models" and highlighted the geopolitical complication of what would happen "if China did not do the same."

Those developments came as oil surged: prices rose more than 2% Sunday night after Saudi Arabia shuttered the pipeline, and U.S. crude broke above $100 per barrel last week for the first time since May amid escalating Middle East tensions. The oil rally contributed to last week's losses for equities — the Dow slid 1.6% (its biggest weekly drop since March), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.

Market breadth and regional moves

• Asia markets were mixed: Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 0.81% lower, South Korea's Kospi plunged 3.26%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.10%, and China's CSI 300 fell 0.67% to 4,480.08.
• European bourses opened lower, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 down 0.15%; Germany's DAX fell 0.3% and France's CAC 40 slipped 0.4% while the U.K.'s FTSE 100 gained around 0.4% on strength in oil majors.
• Individual movers: Novo Nordisk shares rose 1.3% after announcing a rebrand to "Novo" and a new marketing platform around "Lasting Health Starts Now," even as the stock remains down 14% year-to-date.

Investors are also watching monetary policy: Fed funds futures imply roughly an 86% probability of a rate hike at this week's Federal Reserve meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "The investor playbook from here depends on whether Fed hikes or long rates are the dominant driver of today's tighter rates environment," said Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investment Management.

Corporate finance headlines added to market noise. Chinese AI firm Z.ai announced plans to raise about $5 billion through a new share placement and convertible bond sale — including issuing up to 21.97 million new shares at HK$714 each to raise gross proceeds of about HK$15.68 billion (roughly $2 billion) — and the stock fell more than 10% on the news.

Outlook

With major AI companies signalling caution on public listings and model development, and oil prices elevated by Middle East supply concerns, investors face a bifurcated set of risks: policy-driven rate moves and geopolitical supply shocks that can pressure markets even as AI remains a structural growth theme. Market participants will monitor the Fed meeting closely this week for clues on whether monetary tightening or geopolitical-driven commodity moves will dominate near-term direction.