Mint Primer

Dubai real estate sees strong Indian participation, but caution grows

Indian nationals have emerged as the single largest foreign buyer group in Dubai’s real estate market, accounting for more than 20% of foreign property purchases, and investing as much as ₹95,000 crore in residential properties in 2025, estimates by Anarock Property Consultants show. However, rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia and a likely near-term price correction have prompted a growing wait-and-watch stance among investors, raising questions about whether the current momentum can be sustained.

"With prices expected to correct in the near term, property consultants say Indian and other investors may delay deals until there is greater clarity on Dubai’s outlook," the Mint report by Madhurima Nandy noted, underlining the market sentiment that has pushed buyers to pause on new commitments.

Those figures mark a sharp increase from 2023, when Indians and people of Indian origin bought properties amounting to approximately ₹37,000 crore, according to the same Anarock estimates. Investors were drawn to Dubai by several structural attractions: higher rental yields in residential segments, easy entry rules, the investor-friendly UAE Golden Visa that offers tax benefits and long-term residency, geographic proximity, and a property market that saw prices rise 60-70% since 2021.

• Share of foreign purchases by Indians: over 20%
• Estimated residential investment by Indians (2025): up to ₹95,000 crore (Anarock)
• Residential purchases by Indians (2023): about ₹37,000 crore
• Price rise in Dubai since 2021: 60-70%

The current geopolitical backdrop, described in the Mint primer, has already affected market behaviour. Analysts say the first casualties of sentiment shifts are typically off-plan and under-construction purchases as well as speculative investments, which are more sensitive to confidence. The report adds that Dubai’s heavy reliance on international investors and expatriate residents — with UK residents/citizens following Indians as important buyer cohorts — magnifies the impact of cross-border risk perceptions.

Indian developers have also taken note: several have announced plans to set up operations in the emirate in recent years to capitalise on the momentum. Still, property consultants cited in the Mint piece expect many Indian and other foreign buyers to postpone deal closures until there is clearer visibility on market direction and geopolitical stability.

Where might capital flow instead? The Mint analysis indicates that ultra-high-net-worth Indian investors will continue to acquire properties in the UK — often for capital appreciation and education-linked reasons — and in Canada. For regular buyers and NRIs, a return to Indian real estate remains possible but limited: India’s residential market has recovered strongly post-pandemic and, according to analysts quoted in the report, already appears to have peaked in some segments, with housing sales plateauing after years of rapid growth.

Outlook will hinge on two things: the pace and extent of the imminent price correction in Dubai, and how quickly investor confidence returns once the geopolitical environment stabilises. Some buyers may seek renegotiation or distressed opportunities in the emirate, but Mint’s coverage suggests such deals may be limited. For now, Indian participation remains substantial, yet increasingly cautious.