Markets today: Stocks end sharply lower as oil surges to above US$90 amid Middle East turmoil and weak U.S. jobs report

Global markets plunged on Friday as oil surged past US$90 a barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions and an unexpected loss of U.S. jobs in February that amplified fears of economic weakness. Brent crude leaped 8.5% to settle at US$92.69, while benchmark U.S. crude jumped 12.2% to US$90.90 — the first breach of the US$90 level since 2023 — as investors digested comments from President Donald Trump and warnings from Gulf officials. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.95% to 47,501.55, the S&P 500 lost 1.33% to 6,740.00 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.59% to 22,387.68. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 526.25 points, or 1.6%, at 33,083.72, its lowest close since Feb. 17.

“What we’re watching in real time is the difference between a logistics crisis and a structural one,” said Brian E. Kinsella, former Goldman Sachs energy specialist. “The market is betting it’s logistical and I think that is the right read.”

Market details and drivers

• Geopolitical risk: The oil spike followed President Trump’s call for an “unconditional surrender” of Iran and a warning from Qatar’s energy minister that Persian Gulf exporters will shut down energy production “within days” as tankers remain unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Equity performance: The S&P/TSX’s weekly loss was 3.7% after four straight weeks of gains; the Dow posted its steepest weekly percentage drop since early April 2025, and the S&P 500 had its worst week since mid-October.
• Sector moves: Nine of 10 major TSX sectors finished lower on Friday, with financials down 1.9%, consumer discretionary falling 2.8% and industrials off 2.4%.
• Fixed income and FX: The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell about 4 basis points following the weak U.S. jobs report, while Canada’s 2‑year yield rose roughly 4 basis points. The Canadian dollar strengthened to 73.70 U.S. cents as oil gains lifted terms of trade.
• Options and futures signals: Short-term oil volatility spiked — 30‑day at‑the‑money Brent implied volatility jumped 17.5 points to 68% over the prior week — while 60- and 90‑day tenors rose far less, suggesting traders expect the shock to be concentrated in the front of the curve. The front-month to six-month Brent spread widened to about US$10, the steepest backwardation since 2022.
• Index changes: S&P Dow Jones Indices said it will add AbraSilver Resource Corp. (ABRA‑T), Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM‑T), i‑80 Gold Corp. (IAU‑T), Montage Gold Corp. (MAU‑T) and Americas Gold and Silver Corp. (USA‑T) to the S&P/TSX Composite Index effective at the open on March 23. The S&P 500 will add Vertiv Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, Coherent and EchoStar.
• Trade talks: Canada’s minister Dominic LeBlanc described talks with his U.S. counterpart Jamieson Greer on the USMCA review as “constructive” as the trilateral deal faces a July 1 review deadline.

Outlook

Investors head into a volatile week with U.S. inflation and Canadian jobs data on the calendar and continued concern over how far the Middle East conflict will spread and how much it will disrupt energy supplies. While options markets and analysts such as Mr. Kinsella and Darrell E. Fletcher at Bannockburn Capital Markets note that much of the risk premium sits in the near term — and that much of the 2027 Brent strip still trades below US$70 — markets will be closely watching fresh economic readings and any further geopolitical developments for signs of whether the price shock will be short‑lived or entrenched.