Gulf crisis hits restaurants, food delivery, cross-border payments

The unfolding crisis in the Gulf is beginning to bite into India’s food and payments industries, with restaurants advised to cut back operations, food-delivery platforms preparing for order declines and cross‑border payments startups reporting delayed flows tied to disrupted shipping routes. The National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) has asked its roughly 5 lakh members to conserve liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and consider shorter hours as almost 90% of India’s LPG imports come from West Asia. Industry contacts say around 10,000 eateries, including quick‑service restaurants and cloud kitchens, have either temporarily shut or are working at reduced capacity.

“The problem ... will only get bigger in the coming weeks,” said a founder of a cross‑border payments startup, requesting anonymity, describing payment delays triggered by shipment disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz after recent strikes on Iran.

Context and details

• Restaurant operations: The NRAI has advised members to suspend or reduce items requiring long simmering or deep frying, use lids while cooking and explore shorter operating hours to stretch commercial LPG supplies. Saili Jahagirdar, the Pune chapter head of NRAI, told reporters about the 10,000 eateries affected, and officials warned that as many as half the restaurants in Mumbai could be forced to shut if supplies do not improve within two days.
• Impact on food delivery: Major platforms such as Zomato, Swiggy and Ownly could face a drop in orders as thousands of outlets scale back or pause operations. NRAI president and Wow Momo founder Sagar Daryani said some restaurants are exploring induction‑based cooking, though that may not be viable at scale for all kitchens.
• Cross‑border payments: Founders say disruptions to major shipping routes are delaying payments that are triggered by physical shipments. Around 10% of India’s e‑commerce exports — roughly $150 billion annually — transit via the UAE, and India’s total exports reached about $825 billion in FY25, including $387 billion in services. While merchandise shipments have felt the initial shock, one founder noted that “overall transaction volumes remain relatively stable because services exports have not been affected so far.”
• Fintech exposure: Industry estimates put fintech platforms’ share of cross‑border payment flows at about 5–8%, primarily serving small exporters, freelancers and e‑commerce sellers, with banks still dominating larger corporate flows.
• Broader tech ripple effects: Separately, India faces a widening cybersecurity talent gap. Quess Corp data show roughly 380,000 cybersecurity professionals versus demand exceeding 1.2 million, leaving an estimated 30–40% shortfall in deep‑expertise roles. Senior positions now take more than 90 days to fill, offer acceptance rates have fallen from 85% to 70%, closure rates are around 47%, and top architects can command up to Rs 50 lakh annually.

Outlook

In the near term, restaurants and cloud kitchens are likely to keep trimming menus and hours while delivery platforms brace for order volatility. Cross‑border payments startups expect delays to persist as shipping uncertainty lingers; one founder warned the problem will worsen in the coming weeks. Government measures to prioritise household LPG and the uneven exposure of services versus merchandise exports mean the economic effects will be uneven across sectors.

On regulatory fronts, social media firms have been granted extra time to build infrastructure for labelling AI‑generated content; an official noted that “major platforms and tech companies are already addressing this issue globally... these systems will need to be adjusted to align with the latest amendments,” signalling a phased approach to enforcement as businesses adapt to overlapping supply, security and compliance pressures.