Gibraltar Licenses First Prediction Market Operator

Gibraltar has granted the first regulatory licence to a prediction market operator, approving Predict Street Ltd and adding the company to its official register of betting intermediaries on March 26 under the 2005 Gambling Act. The decision, announced in parliament by Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham, clears the way for the crypto-based platform — supported by Abu Dhabi blockchain firm ADI Chain — to open to the public with a launch scheduled for April 9. Predict Street is already advertising itself as the “Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026” and is accepting registrations for early access ahead of the tournament, which begins on June 11, 2026.

“We expect this to be a substantial area of growth for Gibraltar,” Feetham told lawmakers, adding that the licence was issued on an unusually fast timetable. “This represents record timing for the issuing of a regulatory license in Gibraltar.”

Fast approval amid economic pressure

Officials say the approval was processed under existing rules because Gibraltar’s updated gambling legislation has not yet taken effect, and described the timeline as unusually rapid. The move is being positioned as part of a broader strategy to diversify and protect a sector that supports roughly 3,500 jobs on the Rock and generates about one-third of government tax revenue. Feetham linked the initiative directly to recent tax pressures, noting: “Since the introduction of the recent UK gambling duty increases, I have taken a more direct responsibility for promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering.” In a separate LinkedIn statement he said, “We are working relentlessly to protect Gibraltar’s economic interests.”

Nigel Freeman, who also spoke publicly about the initiative, warned of the need to adjust to global changes: “There is no room for complacency. We must continue to adapt decisively to a changing global economic environment. And adapt we must.”

Regulatory divergence in Europe and beyond

Gibraltar’s move comes as prediction markets remain controversial across Europe. Germany, the Netherlands, France and Portugal have taken steps to restrict or block operators, treating some platforms as either illegal gambling or unauthorized financial instruments. By contrast, Malta has signalled a more exploratory approach: Economy Minister Silvio Schembri said his government is “actively exploring the emerging field of prediction markets, an area experiencing rapid global momentum which presents significant opportunities for innovation,” while stressing the need for a “clear, forward-looking legislative framework.”

• Licence added to Gibraltar register: March 26 (2005 Gambling Act)
• Predict Street public launch date: April 9
• World Cup 2026 kickoff: June 11, 2026
• Local gaming sector: ~3,500 employees and ~one-third of government tax revenue

Outside Europe, the United States represents another testing ground: prediction platforms there operate under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight but have faced legislative scrutiny, particularly for sports-related contracts. British authorities have indicated prediction markets would likely be treated under gambling regulation, meaning Gibraltar-licensed firms would still face barriers to serving UK customers without a local licence.

Uncertain path ahead

While Gibraltar has opened the door to prediction markets, the sector’s trajectory in Europe will depend on how regulatory fragmentation plays out and whether larger markets like the UK impose restrictive licensing requirements. It is also unclear whether major international operators will relocate to or expand in Gibraltar, or whether established local betting companies will seize the opportunity to enter the space. For now, the licence for Predict Street represents a calculated attempt by Gibraltar to adapt to shifting market and fiscal conditions and to capture new types of digital wagering and financial activity.