Formula One Group and the Gulf Grand Prix dilemma

Formula One Group faces uncertainty over Bahrain and Saudi races despite strong annual results

Formula One Group, which reported consolidated revenue of $4.48bn and an operating profit that doubled to $577m including its newly acquired MotoGP segment, is confronting fresh market anxiety as questions mount over whether the Bahrain Grand Prix and the Saudi Arabian race will take place as scheduled in April. The stock has been "buffeted over the past week" amid that uncertainty, MarketScreener reported, even as the group becomes easier to read following the December split between Liberty Live and Liberty Media and last summer's takeover of MotoGP.

"That deadline could serve as a cut-off date for a decision," the MarketScreener dispatch said, referring to the arrival of the first logistics convoys for Bahrain, due to head for the island within a fortnight.

Organizers are racing against a tightening calendar and logistical constraints. Four of Formula 1's 24 scheduled Grands Prix are held in the Gulf, and two — the Bahrain round on April 12 and the following week's Jeddah race in Saudi Arabia — sit at the centre of the debate. A MotoGP Grand Prix is also scheduled for April 12 near Doha, Qatar. Reuters has reported a scenario in which "the season is reduced to 22 races instead of 24" as now appearing the most likely outcome, which would create a roughly five-week gap without a race between Japan (March 27-29) and Miami (May 1-3).

• Revenue (including MotoGP): $4.48bn
• Operating profit: $577m
• Potential calendar reduction: 24 → 22 races (Reuters)
• Key dates: Japan (March 27-29) → Bahrain (April 12) → Jeddah (following week) → Miami (May 1-3)

MarketScreener noted that organisers briefly explored replacement venues, but extreme heat later in the year and an already crowded calendar make substitutes hard to deliver. Several European circuits have been cited as potential alternates, while the idea of a second Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka is "on the cards" — a move that would entail fewer logistical hurdles. Yet the outlet observed a commercial disincentive for local promoters: "local promoters would probably have little interest in funding an additional race when Aston Martin, powered by Honda, still does not appear in a position to fight at the front."

The stakes extend beyond immediate gate receipts. MarketScreener emphasised that the two Gulf races "make a significant contribution to the group's revenue" and carry strategic weight: Saudi Arabia has become "a leading financial partner, with massive investments," while Bahrain's sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat is the controlling shareholder of McLaren Group. That constellation of capital ties and political considerations adds complexity to any decision to cancel or relocate events.

Looking ahead, organisers face a narrow window. With logistics convoys due to depart for Bahrain within a fortnight, that timeline "could serve as a cut-off date," according to MarketScreener. If the Bahrain and Jeddah rounds are shelved, the group will confront both short-term revenue implications and longer-term diplomatic and commercial calculations as it balances the demands of teams, promoters and Gulf partners.